IATA forecasts passenger demand to double over 20 years

Photo by IATA

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects 7.2 billion passengers to travel in 2035, a near doubling of the 3.8 billion air travelers in 2016. The prediction is based on a 3.7% annual Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR) noted in the release of the latest update to the association’s 20-YearAir Passenger Forecast.

“People want to fly. Demand for air travel over the next two decades is set to double. Enabling people and nations to trade, explore, and share the benefits of innovation and economic prosperity makes our world a better place,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Eastward shift, developing market focus

The forecast for passenger growth confirms that the biggest driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region. It is expected to be the source of more than half the new passengers over the next 20 years. China will displace the US as the world’s largest aviation market (defined by traffic to, from and within the country) around 2029.

India will displace the UK for third place in 2026, while Indonesia enters the top ten at the expense of Italy. Growth will also increasingly be driven within developing markets. Over the past decade the developing world’s share of total passenger traffic has risen from 24% to nearly 40%, and this trend is set to continue.

(Click on the graph to see it in full size)

Risks, Challenges and Opportunities

The 20-year forecast puts forward three scenarios. The central scenario foresees a doubling of passengers with a 3.7% annual CAGR. If trade liberalization gathers pace, demand could triple the 2015 level. Conversely, if the current trend towards trade protectionism gathers strength, growth could cool to 2.5% annual CAGR which would see passenger numbers reach 5.8 billion by 2035.

“Economic growth is the only durable solution for the world’s current economic woes. Yet we see governments raising barriers to trade rather than making it easier. If this continues in the long-term, it will mean slower growth and the world will be poorer for it. For aviation, the protectionist scenario could see growth slowing to as low as 2.5% annually. Not only will that mean fewer new aviation jobs, it will mean that instead of 7.2 billion travelers in 2035, we will have 5.8 billion. The economic impact of that will be broad and hard-felt,” said de Juniac.

Whatever scenario is eventually realized, growth will put pressure on infrastructure that is already struggling to cope with demand.  “Runways, terminals, security and baggage systems, air traffic control, and a whole raft of other elements need to be expanded to be ready for the growing number of flyers. It cannot be done by the industry alone. Planning for change requires governments, communities and the industry working together in partnership,” said de Juniac.

The industry will also need to be able to grow sustainably. Earlier this month airlines supported the establishment of a Carbon Offset and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). This landmark agreement—the first among governments to manage the emissions growth of an entire global industrial sector—aims to cap net emissions with carbon neutral growth from 2020. “Aviation is at the forefront of industries in managing its carbon footprint. Along with offsetting emissions through CORSIA, airlines are working with partners in industry and government to advance technology, improve operations and generate more efficiencies in infrastructure,” said de Juniac.

Key facts (all figures based on central growth forecast)

Fast-growing markets

The five fastest-growing markets in terms of additional passengers per year over the forecast period will be

  • China (817 million new passengers for a total of 1.3 billion)
  • US (484 million new passengers for a total of 1.1 billion)
  • India (322 million new passengers for a total of 442 million)
  • Indonesia (135 million new passengers for a total of 242 million)
  • Vietnam (112 million new passengers for a total of 150 million).

The top ten fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa: Sierra Leone, Guinea, Central African Republic, Benin, Mali, Rwanda, Togo, Uganda, Zambia and Madagascar. Each of these markets is expected to grow by more than 8% each year on average over the next 20 years, doubling in size each decade.

Regional growth

  • Routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers by 2035, for an overall market size of 3.1 billion. Its annual average growth rate of 4.7% will be the second-highest, behind the Middle East
  • The North American region will grow by 2.8% annually and in 2035 will carry a total of 1.3 billion passengers, an additional 536 million passengers per year
  • Europe will have the slowest growth rate, 2.5%, but will still add an additional 570 million passengers a year. The total market will be 1.5 billion passengers
  • Latin American markets will grow by 3.8%, serving a total of 658 million passengers, an additional 345 million passengers annually compared to today
  • The Middle East will grow strongly (5.0%) and will see an extra 258 million passengers a year on routes to, from and within the region by 2035. The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will all enjoy strong growth of 6.3%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively. The total market size will be 414 million passengers
  • Africa will grow by 5.1%. By 2035 it will see an extra 192 million passengers a year for a total market of 303 million passengers



The post IATA forecasts passenger demand to double over 20 years appeared first on The Insider Stories.

Source: The Insiderstories
IATA forecasts passenger demand to double over 20 years

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Tekanan dari Harga Komoditas…*

Selamat Pagi dari PT. Universal Broker Indonesia, 21 Oktober 2016

Selamat pagi…

Pada perdagangang semalam, harga minyak WTI (West Texas Intermediate) akhirnya mengakhiri pergerakan dengan penurunan yang cukup tajam, US$1,17 per barrel (-2,27 persen) sehingga ditutup pada level US$50,43 per barrel. Koreksi ini membuat indeks Dow Jones Indutrial (DJI) gagal untuk bersinar ditengah debat Presiden US yang kembali dimenangkan oleh Hillary Clinton. Indeks Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) semalam akhirnya mengakhiri pergerakan dengan penurunan tipis sebesar 40,27 poin (-0,22 persen) di level 18.162,35.

Penurunan pada harga minyak WTI tersebut diperkirakan bakal terus memberikan tekanan pada saham-saham sektor pertambangan, terutama pertambangan batubara, yang pada beberapa waktu terakhir menjadi penggerak utama sentimen perdagangan di lantai Bursa Efek Indonesia. IHSG pada hari ini diperkirakan bakal bergerak bervariasi pada kisaran sempit 5.380 – 5.425. IHGS sedang berada dalam trend turun jangka pendek. Hanya penutupan diatas resisten 5.425 yang bisa mengakhiri trend turun jangka pendek tersebut.

Kemarin, Bank Indonesia mengumumkan penurunan suku bunga acuan. Bukannya bergerak naik, saham-saham perbankan seperti BMRI dan BBCA malah kemudian ditutup dibawah suport pertamanya. Dengan bank-bank utama bergerak dalam trend turun menjelang pengumuman kinerja 3Q2016 yang akan mereka lakukan, pemodal sebaiknya lebih berhati-hati dalam melakukan positioning. Terutama juga karena saham-saham komoditas batubara, sepertinya juga kehabisaan tenaga sebagai akibat dari harga komoditasa yang belakangan cenderung bergerak stagnan.

Pemodal sebaiknya hanya berada dalam posisi trading, sehingga terlihat adanya signal positif baik dari individual saham maupun dari pasar secara keseluruhan atau IHSG.

DISCLAIMER: Informasi yang terkandung dalam laporan ini telah disusun dari sumber-sumber yang menurut kami dapat diandalkan. PT Universal Broker Indonesia dan/atau perusahaan afiliasinya dan/atau masing-masing karyawan dan/atau agen penjual tidak menjamin keakurasian dan kelengkapan informasi. Kami tidak bertanggung jawab atas hasil dari transaksi yang dilakukan dengan berdasarkan atas informasi yang ada pada laporan ini. Semua pendapat, prediksi, perkiraan, dan proyeksi yang ada pada laporan ini adalah merupakan pendapat terbaik yang kami buat, berdasarkan informasi yang kami miliki, pada tanggal laporan ini dibuat, dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan terlebih dahulu dan tidak mengikat.

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ECB decided rates remained unchanged, open to lower levels in coming months

Photo by ECB

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively.

The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

“Rates expected to stay at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, well past horizon of asset purchases,” President of ECB Mario Draghi said in press statement.

Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the monthly asset purchases of €80 billion are intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until it sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim.

Draghi added, Euro are continues to show resilience to adverse effects of global economy and political uncertainty. ECB, He continues, remain committed to preserving the very substantial degree of monetary accommodation.
“We will continue to act if warranted by using all instruments available within our mandate,” He stated.
Inflation, Draghi explained, likely to pick up in next months, mostly due to base effects and there is no signs yet of convicing uptrend in underlying inflation. At the end, He urged, the implementation of structural reforms need to be substantially stepped up in all euro area countries.

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Source: The Insiderstories
ECB decided rates remained unchanged, open to lower levels in coming months

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BI cuts BI 7-day RR Rate by 25 bps to 4.75%


JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Bank Indonesia Board of Governors Meeting on 19-20 October 2016 decided to lower the BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate (BI 7-day RR Rate) by 25 bps from 5.00% to 4.75%, with interest rates Deposit Facility dropped by 25 bps to 4.00% and Lending Facility fell by 25 bps to 5.50%, effective from October 21, 2016, said the executive director Tirta Segara.

Bank Indonesia believes that the easing of monetary policy is in line with the subdued levels of macroeconomic stability, especially inflation in 2016 is expected to approach the lower limit of the target range, the current account deficit a better-than-expected balance of payments surplus is larger, and the exchange rate relatively stable.

In the midst of the still weak global economy, monetary policy easing is believed to further strengthen efforts to boost domestic demand, including demand for credit, so that it can continue to encourage the economic growth momentum.

Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen policy coordination with the Government to ensure control of inflation, the strengthening of growth stimulus, and the implementation of structural reforms goes well, be able to support sustainable economic growth.

The global economic recovery is still slow and uneven. The US economy is expected to grow less than previously projected, while Europe and India is expected to grow higher than previous estimates.

The forecast US economic growth was reflected in lower consumption indicator is not solid and the estimated investment is still contracting. Correspondingly, the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) is expected to rise only once in 2016.The improved European employment condition has pushed up consumer income.

On the other hand, the consumption in India is expected to increase supported by rising incomes. In the commodity markets, world oil prices are still at a low level, in line with the high OPEC oil production. Meanwhile, the majority of Indonesia’s export commodity prices have improved, such as coal, crude palm oil and some minerals.

Indonesia’s economic growth in the third quarter of 2016 are likely not as strong as previously expected. Consumption indicated improved, though still limited. On the other hand, improvement of private investment, particularly non-construction, estimated to still strong, in line with an installed capacity is still quite large.

Meanwhile, fiscal stimulus is expected to remain limited, in line with the adjustment of government spending in the second half of 2016. On the external side, the weak economy and world trade resulted in improvements in real exports are still stuck, although prices for some export commodities began to improve.

With these developments, the overall economic growth for 2016 is estimated to tend to approach the lower limit of the range of 4.9 to 5.3% (yoy), Bank Indonsia said.

Indonesia’s balance of payments is expected to record an wider surplus with the current account deficit is lower. For the entire third quarter of 2016, the current account deficit is estimated to be below 2% of GDP, mainly supported by the trade surplus in line with the improvement in the price of primary commodities and a decline in non-oil imports.

Indonesia’s trade balance posted a surplus of US$2.09 billion, an increase compared with the second quarter 2016 surplus amounted to US$1.92 billion. On the other hand, foreign portfolio inflows into Indonesia’s financial markets until September 2016 has reached US$12.1 billion, higher than the inflow of foreign portfolio for the entire 2015.

With these developments, the position of Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves end of September 2016 stood at US$115.7 billion or the equivalent of 8.9 months of imports or 8.5 months of imports and government foreign debt payments. The figure is above the standard international adequacy approximately 3 months of imports.

Rupiah remained stable with a tendency to strengthen. The rupiah exchange rate in September 2016, on average, has appreciated by 0.41% and reached the level of Rp 13.110 per US dollar. The strengthening continued and by the third week in October 2016 closed at Rp 13,005 per US dollar.

On the domestic front, the strengthening of the rupiah is supported by the positive sentiment in the domestic economy, in line with the conditions of macroeconomic stability is maintained and the implementation of the Law on Tax Forgiveness is going well.

From the external side, the rupiah appreciation associated with the easing of global risk, in line with the easing sentiment associated timing FFR rise in September 2016. Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia will maintain the stability of the exchange rate in accordance with its fundamental value.

Inflation remained under control at a low level and at the end of the year is expected to be at the lower limit of the inflation target range in 2016, which is 4 ± 1%. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September 2016 recorded inflation of 0.22% (mtm). Inflation is quite restrained and in accordance with the historical trend.

With these developments, CPI inflation in year-to-date (ytd) and annual (yoy) respectively reached 1.97% (ytd) and 3.07% (yoy). Core inflation remained stable, which stood at 3.21% (yoy), in line with weak domestic demand, the trend of declining prices of goods input from global industry, and relatively stable exchange rate. On the other hand, volatile foods (VF) recorded a deflation of 0.09% (mtm) mainly from the correction of the price of some food commodities.

The financial system remained stable with the resilience of the banking system is maintained. In August 2016, the capital adequacy ratio (Capital Adequacy Ratio / CAR) stood at 23.0% and liquidity ratio (AL / DPK) stood at 21.1%. Meanwhile, the NPL (Non Performing Loan / NPL) stood at 3.2% (gross) or 1.5% (net).

Transmission easing of monetary policy through interest rates persist, reflected the continued decline in deposit rates and lending rates. However, transmission through the credit channel is not optimal, seen credit growth is still limited in line with weak demand, including demand from corporate investments are not yet strong.

Credit growth in August 2016 stood at 6.8% (yoy), lower than the previous month’s growth of 7.7% (yoy). Meanwhile, economic financing through the capital market, such as the issuance of shares, bonds and medium term notes (MTN), has increased.

Furthermore, the growth of third party funds (DPK) in August 2016 stood at 5.6% (yoy), down compared to growth in the previous month. Bank Indonesia believes easing monetary policy and macroprudential policy easing has been done can boost credit growth to sustain higher economic growth ahead. (*)


The post BI cuts BI 7-day RR Rate by 25 bps to 4.75% appeared first on The Insider Stories.

Source: The Insiderstories
BI cuts BI 7-day RR Rate by 25 bps to 4.75%

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Selamat sore…

Sorry singkat… nyetir.

Saya kosong. Bid dikit. Ngarep Hillary Effect.

Happy trading… semoga barokah!!!
Satrio Utomo

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