Category Archives: Berita Pasar Modal

The Insider Stories Morning Notes: JCI in mixed tend, Rupiah under pressure

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) –  Bahana Securities is expected the composite stock price index (JCI) to move in mixed tend to strengthen the range of 5,125-5,232 on friday with stocks that may be considered such as MYRX, TINS, UNTR, AISA, and MLPL.

While, PT KGI Sekuritas Indonesia estimates that JCI today moving in a range of 5,120 to 5,200, said Senior Researcher KGI Securities Indonesia Yuganur Wijanarko in his research. KGI Securities recommends BBNI (Rp5,350-Rp5,450), ADRO (Rp1,670-Rp1,770), TLKM (Rp3,970-Rp4,070) and ADHI (Rp2,020-Rp2,120).

Yesterday, JCI closed at 5198.75 or rose 0.97% * against the previous closing (-4.13% mtd; 13.19% ytd). The increase was supported by bargain hunting in the consumer sector stocks after the announcement of the inflation rate which rose exceed prior estimates.

The decision of OPEC to restrict oil production also helped push up the shares of mining-based. Foreign investors recorded a net buy Rp218.5 billion in the regular market (net buy Rp184,8 M mtd; net buy Rp9,7 T ytd). As many as 150 stocks rose, 150 stocks declined, 90 stocks unchanged and 186 shares not experience trading.

On the money market Putu Agus Pransuamitra, Research and Analyst PT Monex Investindo Futures, said the strengthening US economic data make the dollar bullish. Putu predict the Rupiah potentially heading to level Rp13,700 to Rp13,800 per US dollar by the end of 2016. On Thursday, Rupiah closed at RP 13,523.00 per USD, up 0.24% against the previous close * (+ 3.64% mtd; -1.89% ytd).

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The Insider Stories Morning Notes: JCI in mixed tend, Rupiah under pressure

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Impact of OPEC’s oil agreement on Asia-Pacific economies

By Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Global Insight

  • The OPEC deal has set a lower OPEC production target that reduces the production by 1.2 million barrels per day. The immediate impact effect has been to push up world oil prices.
  • This is positive for Asia’s oil and gas exporting countries, including Malaysia, Brunei and Myanmar. While this can be negative for oil importing countries, the overall negative impact is expected to be relatively modest if the increase in oil prices due to the OPEC deal is contained to around USD10 per barrel or lower over the next few months. Many of Asia’s largest economies are oil importers, including Japan, China, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines and India. Even Indonesia, which recently rejoined OPEC, is a net oil importing nation albeit still net exporter of LNG.
  • The negative impact on GDP growth in Asian oil-importing countries is expected to be low with the upward impact on inflation, which is also expected to be moderate for large oil importers, such as India and Thailand.
  • The Asian countries that are relatively dependent on oil imports, such as India and Sri Lanka, are most vulnerable to higher oil prices due to the high share of oil in their total import bill.
  • Higher oil prices will have varying impact effects on individual industry sectors. Industries for which oil comprises a significant proportion of input costs, such as airlines and road transportation companies, will face greater negative impact effects. However, this needs to be seen within the overall context of world oil price changes since 2014. Even if Brent crude averages USD52 in 2017, this would still be less than half the price of oil at the beginning of 2014.
  • Clearly the upstream oil industry will be helped by any sustained improvement in oil prices. However, downstream industries, such as oil refining and chemicals, will face higher crude oil input costs. However, again, if the average increase in world oil prices in 2017 is USD10 or less, the overall negative impact on the industrial sector and households should be moderate.

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Source: The Insiderstories
Impact of OPEC’s oil agreement on Asia-Pacific economies

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Indonesia posted inflation 0.47% m-t-m, 2.59% y-t-d, 3.58% y-o-y

photo-bps

JAKARTA (TheInsiderStories) – Indonesia posted inflation of 0.47 percent in November compared to previous month 0.1 percent, led by staple food such as chili, housing, electricity and water price the Central Bureau of Statistic (BPS) announced. Year to date, the inflation recorded 2.59 compared to same period in 2015 2.37 percent.

Deputy of Distribution and Services Statistics of BPS Sasmito Hadi Wibowo explained, in annually basis the inflation dropped significantly from 4.89 percent in November 2015 to 3.58 percent. The core inflation on year-on-year basis lowered to 3.07 percent.
Commenting on the inflation data, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Darmin Nasution the rising inflation especially boost by the food price. But, He believed by the end of 2016, inflation will ended at 3.0 to 3.1 percent.

 

The post Indonesia posted inflation 0.47% m-t-m, 2.59% y-t-d, 3.58% y-o-y appeared first on The Insider Stories.

Source: The Insiderstories
Indonesia posted inflation 0.47% m-t-m, 2.59% y-t-d, 3.58% y-o-y

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Moody’s: Emerging Asia and Caribbean are most vulnerable regions to natural disasters

New York, November 28, 2016 — Direct damages from natural disasters cost almost 1.5% of GDP per year on average across countries globally as the incidence of natural catastrophes has increased over the past 35 years, says Moody’s Investors Service in a report that analyzes the exposure to natural disasters of 125 Moody’s rated sovereigns.

“Natural disasters can affect a sovereign’s debt repayment capacity by affecting a country’s economic resilience, fiscal strength and susceptibility to event risk,” said Elena Duggar, an Associate Managing Director at Moody’s. “Susceptibility to disasters varies significantly across countries.”

While the average annual damage between 1980-2015 was 0.3% of GDP in developed economies, it was 1.5% of GDP in emerging markets as a whole, and reached 3.6% in the Caribbean region.

Asia is the most affected region in terms of natural disaster occurrence and affected population, due to its geographic features and population density. The Caribbean region has experienced the highest damages globally as a share of GDP. In the period 1980 to 2015, the three countries with the highest annual percentage loss of GDP due to natural disasters were Mongolia (20.1%), Maldives (18.5%) and Belize (9.3%).

These extreme events are typically associated with a fall in economic output, as well as deteriorating external and fiscal balances. Debt-to-GDP ratios also rise as sovereigns increase their borrowing to help finance reconstruction efforts. Natural disasters can also increase poverty as they tend to have a disproportionate impact on the poorer parts of the population.

Moody’s report also shows that emerging economies are less insured against natural disasters. Data from reinsurance company SwissRe shows that over 40 percent of the direct losses from natural disasters are insured in developed countries, while only 5 percent are in low income countries.

Private sector insurance plays an important role in mitigating the adverse impacts of disasters in advanced economies. By contrast, developing countries rely on governments for post-disaster relief, placing a heavy burden on public finances and giving rise to sovereign contingent liabilities.

 

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Source: The Insiderstories
Moody’s: Emerging Asia and Caribbean are most vulnerable regions to natural disasters

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Fitch: Further CPO price rise to be constrained, despite rising biodiesel demand

SINGAPORE/JAKARTA, November 29 (Fitch): Biodiesel demand in Indonesia is likely to continue rising in 2017, after tripling in 2016.

However, this is unlikely to lead to higher average crude palm oil (CPO) prices in 2017, relative to current levels, due to higher CPO output following improved weather conditions, says Fitch Ratings.

Higher biodiesel usage is an important factor behind improving CPO prices in 2016, as CPO is the main raw material for biodiesel. Indonesian biodiesel consumption over the year to end-October 2016 tripled on an annualised basis from 2015, rising to 2.16 million kiloliters (kl) from 0.86mn kl, according to the Indonesia Estate Crop Fund.

Fitch estimates that Indonesia’s higher biodiesel consumption contributed to over half of global CPO demand increase in 2016, even though CPO inputs for Indonesia’s biodiesel are only 4% of total global consumption.

The increase in biodiesel consumption follows a government push under its B20 programme, which mandates that biodiesel should be blended with diesel in the ratio of 20:80 in 2016, an increase from the 15% blending in 2015.

The government aims to increase biodiesel consumption to 5.5 million kl in 2017, from its 2.9 million kl target for 2016.

Assuming other demand components show steady growth, we expect global CPO demand to increase by 3 million to 4 million tonnes (t) in 2017.

However, global CPO output should rebound by around 6 million t in 2017 after a weak 2016 to outpace demand, as dry weather conditions due to El Nino have dissipated

The higher output should gradually replenish inventories during 2017, but given current low inventory levels, the effect of higher production on prices should be more visible in 2H17.

Overall, we expect CPO prices at around USD660/t in 2017, slightly lower than current levels of USD670/t, but better than the 2016 average price of USD635/t.

 

The post Fitch: Further CPO price rise to be constrained, despite rising biodiesel demand appeared first on The Insider Stories.

Source: The Insiderstories
Fitch: Further CPO price rise to be constrained, despite rising biodiesel demand

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